The December 17 paper by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) suggests 46 percent will likely die from non-coronavirus related causes, such as cancelled surgeries and suicides. Published by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) yesterday, the document highlights the unintended effects of lockdowns but stresses their effectiveness in saving lives.
Officials predict around 105,000 additional deaths from the pandemic due to disruption to NHS operations and the economic downturn caused by coronavirus.
Excess deaths caused “directly from COVID-19” are expected to reach around 130,000 by the end of February 2021.
In the same period, the DHSC document suggests 14,000 people will die from “changes to emergency care”.
In addition, 32,000 are expected to die from “changes to adult social care”.
The document also suggested coronavirus patients mortality rates will shoot up by 55 percent if NHS critical care capacity is breached.
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Long term analysis for certain causes of death have also been quantified, with the DHSC looking at the death rates “up to 50 years” after the pandemic.
For “changes to elective care”, the long term impact is expected to see another 18,200 people die due to coronavirus delays.
It also reports 1,400 cancer patients who have had their diagnosis delayed because of the pandemic are expected to die within 50 years.
The impact of an economic downturn and recession in the wake of COVID-19 may also cause 40,000 deaths.
As of yesterday, 35,375 coronavirus patients are in hospital with 3,918 in ventilator beds.
It also saw 2,903 more Brits admitted to hospital, for a total of 383,808 since the pandemic began.
Another 29,079 cases and 1,245 deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test were also recorded yesterday.
In total, 3,772,813 cases and 104,371 deaths within 28 days of a test have been reported.