Circuit breaker: How effective will a circuit breaker be? | UK | News (Reports)

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A circuit breaker or “fire-breaker” lockdown will come into force at 6pm on Friday in Wales. Pressure from scientists and other experts is growing on the Government to impose a short-term “circuit-breaker” lockdown in England as coronavirus cases continue to rise. But how effective could this measure be? Express.co.uk talks to experts about the effectiveness of this move?

Coronavirus infections are continuing to rise in the UK according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The new data suggests cases have risen by a quarter to more than 35,200 a day in England.

Infection rates are at the highest among older teenagers and adults in recent weeks.

The ONS infection survey suggests around one in 130 people you meet in England had coronavirus in the week to October 16.

READ MORE: Christmas lockdown: Labour’s Dodds grilled by BBC host on Starmer plea

University College London’s director of the Clinical Operational Research Unit Professor Christina Pagel and the independent Sage organisation said a two-week circuit breaker at the end of November could save between 3,000 and 6,000 lives.

When asked why experts believe a circuit breaker would be effective public health advisor Dr Charlie Easmon said: “The correct question is why do experts know that a circuit breaker would be effective?

“In simple terms, it worked before with the original lockdown and it reduces the R number so fewer people are targets and fewer people get infected by each positive case.”

Dr Easmon added: “The effectiveness can be based on epidemiological modelling or the pragmatic measure of fewer deaths and fewer people in intensive care.

“The modelling clearly indicates that it would be effective in reducing deaths and illness but this problem recurs post circuit break so it is a temporary solution to help with a winter crisis and relieve the NHS of excess pressure.”

The University of Kent’s Molecular Medicine Professor Martin Michaelis said England had yet to implement a circuit breaker due to “politics”.

He said: “In the current situation, a circuit breaker would not solve the issue and let us get back to a kind of ‘normal’ but would only provide some room for manoeuvre to bring in measures to control SARS-CoV-2 spread more effectively.

“Ideally, you would want to have numbers reduced to a level that outbreaks can be effectively contained by an effective track-and-trace system.

“However, this does not seem realistic in the current situation. Hence, the further development of the pandemic will very much depend on the measures and behaviour of the public after a strict circuit breaker lockdown would be eased.”

Professor Michaelis added: “The long-term success will always depend on the adherence of the general public.

“As long as there are no effective drugs and vaccines, we must keep our distance, wear masks, wash our hands, avoid crowded places (in particular indoors), isolate ourselves if we may be infected, and learn to avoid intuitive situations and behaviours that are associated with a high risk of virus transmission.

“The question should not be ‘What am I allowed to do within the rules?’ but ‘How can I avoid becoming infected and infecting others?’.

“Otherwise, transmission numbers will keep going up every time measures are eased.”

Dr Dominic Pimenta is co-founder and chairman of NHS charity for NHS workers HEROES.

Dr Pimenta said: “The issue we will have is compliance – already we see only very small percentages actually self-isolating, and without support to do so in terms of business and self-employed individuals, any widespread measure will suffer.

“We also have major issues with trust now, from the Spring onwards the government have suffered repeated blows to public belief in their actions, to the point now I am worried a sufficient proportion will no longer follow any circuit breaker – and in that case, all we will generate is economic harm, without virus control.

“We need to take a ‘herd responsibility’ approach, all of us working together to bring the virus back under control measures so we can all reach a more normal life again.”

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